2018-09-20

橡皮擦計畫:兩位天才心理學家,一段改變世界的情誼 BY 壹團 張文彥

在諾貝爾經濟學獎得主Daniel Kahneman 的知名著作<快思慢想>裡,有一個無所不在的人名: Amos Tversky。當我閱讀<快思慢想>時,起初以為這不過就是一個作者時常引用的其他學者,就如同其他大部頭著作裡常見的學者引用論文而已。但當我逐漸看完時,我發現這個人名佔據書中每個角落,後來才逐漸了解Amos 和Daniel之間不比尋常的關係:不僅僅是工作上的夥伴,更是如同<橡皮擦計畫>裡所述:A FRIENDSHIP MORE INTENSE THAN MARRIAGE

<橡皮擦計畫>就是描述Daniel Kahneman 和Amos Tversky 之間的友情。兩者皆為猶太人心理學家,年輕時皆曾經在以色列軍隊服役,在以色列建國之初為軍隊出了不少力。兩者在研討會上偶然相遇,那時Amos是心理學界的明日之星,而Daniel正在希伯來大學教書,困於一般科學家常見的問題:有想法,但沒辦法分析。Amos卻是眾人公認的天才:能夠把他人的想法敘述的比本人更為清楚。

接下來十五年,就是兩個心理學家的愛恨糾葛,從兩者相知相惜,直到Daniel再也受不了在Amos的陰影之下而分開。而後天才Amos卻在突然之間得到癌症過世,一生在Amos陰影之下的Daniel 卻在數年後得到了諾貝爾經濟學獎。現在大家提到他們倆以前的共同合作成果,都會說這篇文章的作者是Daniel and Amos,但以前大家談論到他們倆共同的成果,都會說這篇論文作者是Amos and Daniel。Amos永遠排在前面。

我覺得紐約時報的書評說得很好:Lewis has written one hell of a love story.

附上Amos寫的一段話,描述人類心理及行為:

People predict by making up stories

People predict very little and explain everything

People live under uncertainty whether they like it or not

People believe they can tell the future if they work hard enough.

People accept any explanation as long as it fits the facts

The handwriting was on the wall, it was just the ink that was invisible

People often work hard to obtain information they already have and avoid new knowledge

Man is a deterministic device thrown into a probabilistic universe

In this match, surprises are expected

Everything that was already happened must have been inevitable